Is Zillow Accurate for Billings Home Values—or Should I Talk to a Local Expert?

Is Zillow accurate for Billings home values—or should I talk to a local expert?
Zillow can provide a rough estimate, but in Montana—especially Billings—its data has serious blind spots. Because Montana is a non-disclosure state, Zillow doesn’t have access to actual sold prices or seller concessions, meaning your home’s true value could be higher or lower than what the site shows. For accuracy, a local market expert like Gene Hauck can bridge the data gap with verified sales and on-the-ground insight.

Why Zillow’s Estimates Miss the Mark in Montana

Zillow’s “Zestimate” algorithm pulls public data such as tax assessments, previous listings, and regional trends to estimate a home’s market value. In most states, this gives buyers and sellers a ballpark figure. But in Montana, the system runs into a wall—literally.

Non-Disclosure Means Incomplete Data

Montana is one of roughly a dozen non-disclosure states, meaning final sale prices are not publicly shared with the state or with third-party sites like Zillow, Redfin, or Realtor.com. This also includes key financial details such as:

• Actual sold price (versus list price)

• Seller concessions (credits given at closing)

• Negotiated terms (repairs, closing costs, financing differences)

Because Zillow can’t access those numbers, its estimates rely heavily on old listings, property taxes, and incomplete MLS data. The result? Even Zillow admits that estimates in non-disclosure states can swing widely—sometimes off by 10–20% or more.

What Zillow Shows for Billings (and Why It’s Misleading)

According to Zillow’s data as of November 2025, the average home value in Billings is $388,790, showing about a 1% increase year over year. (Zillow Home Values – Billings MT)

On the surface, that looks accurate. But here’s the catch:

• That $388K average is based on modeled estimates, not verified sales.

• Zillow can’t factor in homes that sold privately or off-market—a growing segment in Billings.

• It misses price adjustments from seller incentives or appraisal-driven renegotiations.

So while Zillow’s number reflects a trend, it doesn’t reflect truth.

Local Market Reality in 2025

Here’s what’s actually happening in Billings:

• The median list price hovers around $429,900, per Realtor.com, with an average of $194 per square foot.

• Homes in the West End and Ironwood neighborhoods continue to see strong demand.

• Inventory has crept up slightly compared to 2024, creating longer market times and more room for negotiation.

• Homes priced accurately in that $350K–$450K range are still moving fast, especially when staged and marketed well.

When you layer that reality against Zillow’s incomplete dataset, the difference can be tens of thousands of dollars in either direction.

Why Local Expertise Outperforms Algorithms

Zillow’s algorithm might know how many bedrooms your home has—but it doesn’t know what’s happening next door.

Here’s what a local expert like Gene Hauck can see that Zillow can’t:

• Real sold prices from the local MLS (available only to licensed agents)

• Buyer sentiment trends—what features buyers are prioritizing this season

• Upcoming neighborhood changes (new construction, school rezoning, infrastructure updates)

• Condition context—the algorithm can’t “see” your remodeled kitchen or dated carpet

• Pricing psychology—how strategic pricing drives multiple offers even in a balanced market

Put simply: Zillow can tell you what your home might be worth in theory. Gene can tell you what it’s actually worth if it hit the market tomorrow.

A Tale of Two Estimates

Let’s look at a common Billings example:

That’s a $15,000–$30,000 swing—enough to impact your next down payment, equity line, or pricing strategy.

Understanding Zillow’s “Error Rate”

Zillow publishes a median error rate for its Zestimate model—about 2.4% for active listings but over 7.5% for off-market homes (and higher in non-disclosure states). In Montana, where final sale prices are private, the real-world gap can easily double those figures.

Billings homeowners using Zillow as their main valuation tool are effectively guessing within a $30K–$60K range on a $400K property. That’s not small change—it’s a vacation, a remodel, or the difference between an offer accepted and one that lingers.

Why Sellers Should Verify With a CMA

A Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) is your best alternative to online estimates. A CMA by Gene Hauck uses:

• Verified sold prices from Billings MLS data

• Pending listings to assess current competition

• Active inventory for real-time context

• Adjustments for condition, upgrades, and micro-location

• Historical data to project realistic appreciation or depreciation

This gives you a value range grounded in facts, not algorithms.

When to Use Zillow (and When Not To)

Zillow isn’t useless—it’s a good place to start your curiosity. Here’s how to use it smartly:

✅ Use Zillow

• To see general market trends

• To gauge neighborhood list prices

• To compare features between properties

❌ Don’t rely on Zillow

• To price your home for sale

• To evaluate offers

• To measure equity or refinance value

If accuracy matters—and it always does when real money is on the line—start with Zillow for curiosity, then end with Gene Hauck for clarity.

Legal and Ethical Notes

Under Montana’s non-disclosure laws, only licensed professionals with MLS access can review actual sold data. Zillow’s estimates should not be used as a formal appraisal or for lending decisions. For exact valuations, consult a licensed appraiser or real estate agent who abides by the Fair Housing Act, RESPA, and the NAR Code of Ethics.

Conclusion

Zillow’s home value estimates for Billings, MT can be an interesting reference—but not a reliable one. Montana’s non-disclosure status leaves too many gaps in the data, and Zillow’s algorithm can’t see the lived realities of your neighborhood, your updates, or your market timing.

For homeowners serious about understanding true value, Gene Hauck of the Morales Group at Engel & Völkers Billings offers clarity where algorithms fall short. His CMA reports and local insights give you the data Zillow can’t.

Ready to see what your home is really worth?
Schedule a free, no-pressure consultation with Gene Hauck today. You’ll get an accurate market analysis and a strategy that fits your goals—not an algorithm’s guess.